CAIRO, Aug 20 – Global wheat supply is facing tighter conditions as attacks on Black Sea ports and vessels disrupt shipments, raising concerns for major importers such as Egypt and Indonesia while pushing wheat prices higher.
Chicago wheat futures have risen more than 17% since the start of July, mainly because of reduced Black Sea supplies. Prices have also increased in Argentina, Australia and the United States as buyers search for alternative sources.
Recent attacks by Russia and Ukraine have closed grain terminals and forced shippers to delay or cancel cargoes during the peak export season. Some shipments expected to arrive from mid-August could not be loaded, according to a Singapore-based trader who supplies Black Sea wheat to Asian millers.
The disruption is particularly serious for major importers that depend on Russia and Ukraine for a large share of their second-half wheat supplies. In Asia, processors have booked about 2 million to 2.5 million tonnes of Black Sea wheat for delivery between July and September, equal to around 30% to 50% of import demand.
“By the end of August, the market will have to find solutions,” said Maxence Devillers, a grain analyst at Argus Media.
Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, sourced more than 82% of its wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine during the first half of 2026. Traders said the country’s private sector is under greater pressure because it imports more than half of its wheat needs and keeps smaller stocks.
Indonesia, the second-largest wheat buyer, has contracted about 600,000 tonnes from former Soviet grain exporters for July to September. Current stocks can cover immediate food-grade wheat needs, but the country may turn to Bulgaria, Australia, Romania and Argentina if shipments from Russia and Ukraine are delayed.
Other major importers, including Algeria, Bangladesh, Jordan, Thailand, Tunisia and Vietnam, also rely heavily on Black Sea wheat. Jordan cancelled two wheat and two barley tenders this month after receiving few offers, while Tunisia warned suppliers against declaring force majeure.
A vessel due to load grain for Egypt was attacked near Russia’s Novorossiysk port last week. Two sources identified the vessel as the Xin Hai Tong 66 and said it was empty, with no injuries reported.
Replacing Black Sea wheat will also cost more. Australian Premium White wheat is priced at about $315 to $320 per tonne delivered to Asia, compared with around $305 for the cheapest U.S. wheat and $260 to $280 for most Black Sea cargoes.
Ukraine reported 35 attacks on vessels in port, 22 at sea and 67 on port facilities in July, compared with 14 such attacks during all of 2025.
