ABUJA, Aug 20 – Energy inflation fell to 4.37% in July 2026, its lowest level in four months, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The July figure represents a 5.46 percentage-point decline from the 9.83% recorded in June, continuing the sharp fluctuations in energy prices seen during the first seven months of the year. Energy inflation has now remained below 10% in four of the first seven months, although energy costs continue to put pressure on households and businesses.
NBS data showed that energy inflation rose from 11.20% in January to 12.57% in February before falling to 9.89% in March and 4.50% in April. The rate then increased to 5.73% in May and 9.83% in June, before falling sharply again in July.
Despite the latest decline, energy costs remain a major factor in how households and businesses experience inflation. A recent Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) survey found that both groups expect inflation-related spending pressures to ease over the next six months, although energy costs remained the strongest driver of inflation perceptions.
The survey showed that 60.9% of firms reported higher expenditure because of inflation in July, compared with 55.9% of households. Energy costs, including PMS, diesel and electricity, recorded the highest inflation perception score among firms at 74.1 points and 61.9 points among households.
The figures suggest that lower energy inflation has yet to remove the broader financial impact of energy costs, particularly as Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market continues to undergo changes.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has proposed regulations to prevent petroleum companies from coordinating fuel prices, restricting supply or engaging in market-sharing arrangements that could weaken competition across the sector. The proposal follows renewed allegations of coordinated fuel pricing in the downstream market.
Meanwhile, Dangote Refinery reduced its ex-depot price for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to N1,075 per litre on July 2, following a decline in global crude oil prices.
However, movements in international oil markets remain a source of uncertainty for domestic energy prices, with renewed tensions involving the United States and Iran contributing to higher oil prices.
The decline in energy inflation also comes as households face elevated living costs and borrowing rates, with Nigerians increasingly delaying major purchases such as cars, homes and household appliances.
While the July figure offers some relief, energy prices remain closely linked to transportation, production and household spending, meaning changes in PMS, diesel and electricity costs could continue to shape broader inflation expectations.
