DAKAR, July 24 – Mali expects its industrial gold production to remain below 60 metric tons per year through 2029, according to the Ministry of Mines’ 2026 to 2029 strategic plan, signalling that output is unlikely to return to the record levels recorded before sweeping reforms reshaped the country’s mining sector.
According to the production forecasts, seen by Reuters, come as the West African nation continues implementing its 2023 mining code, which strengthened state control over the sector and increased the government’s share of mining revenues.
According to the ministry’s projections, industrial gold production is expected to reach 43.2 metric tons in 2026, before rising to 51.2 tons in 2027 and peaking at 57 tons in 2028. Output is then forecast to ease to 50 tons in 2029.
The ministry did not explain the assumptions behind the projections and did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Production over the forecast period is expected to be led by B2Gold’s Fekola mine, Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex, Resolute Mining’s Syama operation and Allied Gold’s Sadiola mine, which together account for the majority of Mali’s anticipated industrial gold output.
Artisanal and small-scale mining production is projected to remain broadly stable at approximately six metric tons annually throughout the period.
Mali has intensified efforts to increase government revenues from its mining industry following the introduction of the revised mining code.
In December, government officials announced that a national audit had recovered 761 billion CFA francs (approximately $1.2 billion) in alleged outstanding payments from mining companies.
The reforms, however, have unsettled parts of the mining industry. A prolonged dispute between the government and Canadian mining company Barrick over the implementation of the new mining framework resulted in the temporary state administration of the Loulo-Gounkoto complex before both parties reached a settlement last year.
The uncertainty surrounding the reforms has weighed on production and investor confidence despite new mining projects entering operation.
Industrial gold production declined to 42.2 metric tons in 2025, down from a revised 54.8 tons in 2024, and significantly below the record 66.5 metric tons produced in 2023.
The ministry’s plan also points to a gradual depletion of the country’s industrial gold reserves, which are forecast to decline from 906.8 metric tons in 2026 to 748.6 metric tons by 2029.
The outlook highlights the challenge facing Mali as it seeks to maximise returns from one of its most important export industries while maintaining investor confidence. Gold remains the country’s largest export and a critical source of government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, making the sector central to Mali’s long-term economic prospects.
