JOHANNESBURG, Sept 10 – South Africa’s current account swung into a deficit in the second quarter of 2026 as surging oil and petroleum import costs eroded the country’s trade surplus, according to data from the South African Reserve Bank.
The current account deficit stood at 2.6% of gross domestic product in April-June, reversing a surplus of 2.3% of GDP in the first quarter.
In absolute terms, the deficit reached 205.5 billion rand ($12.81 billion), compared with a surplus of 181.6 billion rand in the previous quarter.
The sharp deterioration was driven largely by a contraction in the trade surplus, which fell to 146.4 billion rand from 428.8 billion rand in the first three months of the year.
The South African Reserve Bank attributed much of the pressure to a sharp increase in the cost of crude oil and refined petroleum imports, citing “heightened supply concerns related to the ongoing war in the Middle East”.
The value of crude oil imports increased by 82.1% during the quarter, while the volume purchased rose by just 1.8%. The divergence highlights the extent to which higher international energy prices, rather than significantly greater import volumes, drove the increase in South Africa’s oil bill.
Energy Exposure Drives External Pressure
South Africa imports most of the fuel consumed domestically, leaving its external accounts particularly sensitive to movements in global energy prices.
The latest deterioration therefore illustrates the vulnerability of South Africa’s trade position to geopolitical disruptions in major oil-producing regions. The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran that began in late February pushed energy markets higher and increased the cost of South Africa’s fuel imports.
The reversal in the current account also comes after a particularly strong first quarter, when the country recorded a substantial trade surplus. The sharp quarterly deterioration means that developments in global oil markets are becoming an important factor for South Africa’s external balance alongside domestic economic conditions.
For policymakers, sustained energy-price pressure could weigh on the country’s import bill and broader external position if elevated oil prices persist. Conversely, easing global energy costs would provide relief by reducing the value of fuel imports and supporting the trade balance.
