CAIRO, Aug 17 – Egypt’s economy is projected to grow 4.6% in fiscal year 2025/2026, supported by stronger foreign investment, tourism revenues, exports and a gradual recovery in Suez Canal receipts, according to the International Monetary Fund’s seventh review of the country’s economic programme.
The IMF expects growth to moderate slightly to 4.4% in FY2026/2027 amid continued regional tensions before accelerating to 5% in FY2027/2028 and 5.5% in FY2028/2029. Growth is then projected to stabilise at 4.8% over the following two fiscal years.
The outlook reflects an expected strengthening of Egypt’s foreign-currency generating sectors. Net foreign direct investment is projected to rise from $11.7 billion in FY2024/2025 to $12.4 billion in FY2025/2026 and reach $18.2 billion by FY2030/2031.
Tourism is also expected to remain an important source of foreign exchange. Tourism revenues are forecast to increase from about $16.7 billion in FY2024/2025 to $19.9 billion in FY2025/2026, before reaching $29.8 billion by the end of the IMF’s forecast period.
The Suez Canal, another major source of foreign-currency earnings, is expected to recover gradually following the disruption to shipping activity caused by regional tensions. Canal revenues are projected to rise from $3.6 billion in FY2024/2025 to $4.1 billion in FY2025/2026, reaching $6.6 billion in FY2027/2028 and $11 billion by FY2030/2031.
Egypt’s exports of goods and services are also expected to strengthen. The IMF projects exports of $77.2 billion in FY2025/2026, increasing to $110.6 billion by FY2030/2031. Imports are forecast to rise from $108.2 billion in the previous fiscal year to $125.1 billion in FY2025/2026 and $157.6 billion by FY2030/2031.
However, stronger external inflows are not expected to eliminate Egypt’s current account deficit in the near term. The deficit is projected to widen from $15.4 billion in FY2024/2025 to $19.6 billion in FY2025/2026 and $20.6 billion in the following fiscal year, before gradually narrowing to $18.4 billion by FY2030/2031.
The IMF review also highlighted progress on Egypt’s state asset divestment programme. By July 26, 2026, the government had secured $526.3 million in proceeds, including $420 million from the sale of its entire stake in the Gabal El-Zeit wind power project and $106.3 million from selling Finance Ministry-owned stakes in companies listed on the Egyptian Exchange.
The divestment programme remains a key component of Egypt’s broader economic reform agenda, particularly its efforts to increase private-sector participation and attract investment into the economy.
The IMF said effective implementation of the State Ownership Policy and the government’s asset offering programme will remain critical to strengthening economic stability and supporting private-sector investment.
For Egypt, the projected recovery in tourism, exports and Suez Canal revenues could improve foreign-currency availability and support stronger economic growth. However, the widening current account deficit and continued regional uncertainty mean that sustaining the recovery will depend on the government’s ability to deepen structural reforms and attract durable private investment.
