CAPE TOWN, Mar 19 – Exxaro Resources expects coal exports to increase in 2026 as global energy market disruptions drive demand for alternative fuels.
The South Africa-based miner said exports could rise by up to 12% to around 8 million metric tons, up from 7.1 million tons in 2025.
The outlook is supported by improving freight rail performance and higher global energy prices following the conflict involving United States, Israel and Iran.
Disruptions to oil and gas supply chains have pushed energy prices higher, increasing reliance on alternative fuels such as thermal coal.
Exxaro warned that a prolonged conflict could pose a significant risk to global energy security, potentially disrupting shipping routes and tightening supply of oil and liquefied natural gas.
Such conditions are expected to support stronger demand and pricing for coal.
The benchmark API4 price for South African coal exports has already risen to around $118 per ton, compared with an average of $90 per ton realised by the company in 2025.
Operational Improvements Support Growth
Exxaro’s export growth is also being supported by improvements in South Africa’s rail logistics network.
The company recorded a 2% increase in exports in 2025, benefiting from better freight rail performance.
Mining companies, including Exxaro, have been working with Transnet to restore mineral transport capacity following years of disruption caused by cable theft and infrastructure challenges.
Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns
Exxaro reported an 8% increase in profit for 2025, supported by cost controls that helped offset weaker coal prices during the period.
Headline earnings per share rose to 32.47 rand from 30.16 rand a year earlier.
The company also declared a final dividend of 10 rand per share, representing a 15% increase from the previous payout and bringing total shareholder returns for the year to 6.3 billion rand.
Outlook
While rising coal demand presents a near-term opportunity, Exxaro noted that ongoing geopolitical tensions could continue to shape global energy markets.
If disruptions persist, higher coal demand and prices could support export growth, although risks to global supply chains and trade flows remain elevated.
