JOHANNESBURG, Mar 24 – South Africa’s consumer confidence improved in the first quarter of 2026, supported by stronger sentiment among higher-income households, although rising geopolitical tensions pose risks to the outlook.
The consumer confidence index, sponsored by First National Bank and compiled by the Bureau for Economic Research, rose to -7 points from -9 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The improvement was largely driven by high-income households, benefiting from lower interest rates, strong equity market performance and a relatively stable currency environment prior to the escalation of the Middle East conflict.
However, economists warn that the ongoing war involving Iran could reverse these gains in the coming months.
“Ripple effects from the Iranian war may well trigger a reversal in confidence among high- and middle-income households in the second quarter,” said Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya, Chief Economist at First National Bank.
The survey, conducted before the conflict began in late February, did not capture the full impact of rising oil prices, a weakening rand and increased market volatility, all of which are expected to weigh on consumer sentiment.
Lower-income households continued to face pressure, with confidence declining further due to weak job growth toward the end of 2025 and stricter compliance measures tied to social grants.
The data comes ahead of a key policy decision by the South African Reserve Bank, which is expected to assess the economic impact of currency weakness, equity market volatility and surging energy costs.
While first-quarter data points to improving sentiment, analysts say sustained gains will depend on how global risks evolve, particularly the trajectory of energy markets and geopolitical tensions.
