RABAT, Sept 23 – Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25% following its third quarterly monetary policy meeting of 2026, while lowering its economic growth forecast for Morocco amid heightened external and domestic uncertainty.
The central bank expects inflation to remain subdued, averaging 0.3% during the first eight months of 2026. It projects average inflation of 0.7% for the full year, rising to 1.5% in 2027.
BAM expects underlying inflation to increase from -0.2% in 2026 to 2.2% in 2027, as the effect of lower food prices, particularly olive oil, fades and imported inflation remains elevated.
Against this backdrop, the central bank lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 4.4%, from 4.9% in 2025, and projects growth of 2.9% in 2027.
Agricultural value added is expected to expand by 16% in 2026, supported by an estimated cereal harvest of 93 million quintals. BAM expects the sector to contract by 7.6% in 2027, assuming an average harvest of 50 million quintals.
Non-agricultural activity is projected to grow 3.1% this year and accelerate to 4% in 2027, providing a more stable source of growth as agricultural output normalises.
Energy Costs Pressure External Accounts
Higher international energy prices are expected to weigh on Morocco’s external position. BAM projects the country’s energy import bill will rise 28.4% to MAD 138.1 billion in 2026, before declining to MAD 116 billion in 2027.
Equipment imports are forecast to reach MAD 250.7 billion, following projected increases of 15.6% in 2026 and 8.8% in 2027.
Automobile exports are expected to reach MAD 202.2 billion in 2027, while phosphate and derivative exports are projected to increase by 9.7% this year and 12.1% next year to MAD 122.6 billion.
Tourism receipts are forecast to reach MAD 160 billion in 2027, while remittances from Moroccans living abroad are expected to reach MAD 136.3 billion.
BAM consequently expects the current-account deficit to widen from 2.4% of GDP in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026, before narrowing to 3% in 2027.
Official reserve assets are projected at MAD 502.8 billion at the end of 2026 and MAD 515.3 billion in 2027, equivalent to roughly five and a half months of imports.
Credit and Fiscal Outlook
Bank credit to the non-financial sector is expected to accelerate to 8.1% in 2026, from 4.8% in 2025, before moderating to 6.1% in 2027.
BAM projects Morocco’s budget deficit at 3.4% of GDP in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.
The labour market has also shown improvement. Data from Morocco’s High Commission for Planning, as cited by BAM, showed the economy created 406,000 jobs year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026.
The national unemployment rate fell to 9.5%, although unemployment remained higher in urban areas at 11.9%, compared with 5.4% in rural areas.
BAM said the outlook remains subject to significant risks, including geopolitical tensions, energy and food supply concerns, higher sovereign yields and climate change. Domestic risks include weather conditions and uncertainty surrounding the future direction of economic policy.
