ABIDJAN, Nov 12 – Ivory Coast’s cocoa production could decline by 21% to 25% during the 2026/27 season if an exceptionally strong El Niño weather event develops as forecast, according to a report from the country’s National Meteorology Directorate of SODEXAM.
The warning raises further concerns over global cocoa supply as the world’s largest producer contends with weaker-than-expected crop arrivals and uncertainty over the scale of its next harvest.
Forecasters have cautioned that the developing El Niño could become one of the strongest on record if current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue, according to Reuters.
SODEXAM described the anticipated “Super El Nino 2026-2027” as “structurally severe,” citing the potential combination of reduced rainfall and higher temperatures. The agency is monitoring and documenting the weather event.
“The water deficit combined with high temperatures causes wilting and premature drop of young pods, flower abortion and tree defoliation,” the report said.
Annual rainfall could fall by 10% to 27%, while the rainy season may become shorter and the dry season longer. The report also warned of rising temperatures, disrupted planting calendars and increased pressure on water reservoirs and hydroelectric dams.
The production outlook comes after Ivory Coast decided in June to temporarily suspend sales of export contracts for its 2026/27 main crop. The country had sold approximately 1.15 million tonnes before pausing new sales while awaiting a clearer estimate of the harvest.
Ivory Coast harvested more than 2 million metric tonnes of cocoa in the previous season, according to exporters. However, current arrivals have reportedly fallen below initial expectations.
“Cocoa arrivals are below all of our initial forecasts,” the director of a European cocoa export company based in Abidjan told Reuters. “We have to admit that production isn’t late; it’s actually down. Today we are wondering whether 25% (production drop) is still too optimistic, because production really isn’t good.”
Conditions among farmers reflect the concerns raised by exporters. Simplice Koua, who cultivates six hectares in Duekoue, had sold 14 bags of cocoa weighing 80 kg each by this point in the previous year. This season, he has sold only three bags.
Koua had expected production from a late crop to improve in November, but the anticipated recovery had not materialised.
“We are in November, but production hasn’t moved,” he said.
The potential impact extends beyond the cocoa sector. The African Development Bank told Reuters in July that El Niño could reduce economic output in heavily affected African countries by an average of 1% to 2%, representing a combined economic loss of between $10 billion and $20 billion across the continent.
For the global cocoa market, a potential production decline in Ivory Coast would add to supply uncertainty in a country that plays a central role in international production and exports. The projected reduction remains a forecast, with the eventual impact dependent on the severity and duration of the weather conditions.
