ADDIS-ABABA, June 17 – The World Bank has warned that global natural gas prices are likely to remain unpredictable in the coming years, as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions continue to shape energy markets.
The outlook, published in its April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, said recent events have shown just how vulnerable gas markets remain to external shocks.
According to the report, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for liquefied natural gas shipments from producers such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, triggered sharp price increases across key markets.
Asia’s LNG benchmark surged by about 94 per cent in March, while Europe’s benchmark rose around 59 per cent as buyers competed for a limited number of cargoes.
Although prices later eased, the World Bank said markets remain highly sensitive to supply interruptions and geopolitical developments.
The report noted that the United States experienced less pressure during the disruption, supported by strong domestic production and healthy storage levels that helped absorb some of the global impact.
At the same time, demand growth has slowed. Global gas consumption expanded by just 0.8 per cent in 2025. However, tighter supplies and competition between regions have continued to keep upward pressure on prices.
Looking ahead, the World Bank expects gas prices to edge higher again in 2026 before moderating somewhat in 2027, depending on how quickly Middle Eastern supplies recover and infrastructure in major exporting countries returns to normal operations.
The institution also flagged several risks that could push prices even higher. These include prolonged geopolitical tensions, lower-than-usual gas inventories in Europe and rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence-driven data centres.
While weaker economic growth in Asia could ease some pressure on demand, the World Bank said underlying supply risks remain firmly in place. The report suggests that supply disruptions, rather than stronger demand, are increasingly becoming the main force behind movements in global gas prices.
