TANGIER, April 3 – African economies are facing the risk of a sharper growth slowdown in 2026 if the ongoing Middle East conflict persists, with disruptions to trade, energy, and fertiliser supply chains threatening to ripple across the continent.
A joint report by the United Nations, the African Union, and the African Development Bank warns that Africa’s gross domestic product growth could decline by 0.2 percentage points if the conflict extends beyond six months. The report was presented during a U.N. Economic Commission meeting in Tangier.
The Middle East remains a key trading partner for Africa, accounting for 15.8% of the continent’s imports and 10.9% of its exports. As a result, prolonged instability in the region is likely to affect supply chains, particularly in energy and agriculture.
Rising fuel and food prices are expected to place additional pressure on households, raising the risk of a broader cost-of-living crisis. The report highlights fertiliser supply as a major concern, noting that disruptions to Gulf liquefied natural gas exports could impact ammonia and urea production.
This may drive up fertiliser costs and constrain availability during the critical March to May planting season.
While most economies face downside risks, a few countries could benefit from higher commodity prices. Oil-producing nations such as Nigeria and liquefied natural gas exporters like Mozambique may see gains from elevated energy prices.
Shifts in global shipping routes are already being observed, with increased traffic reported at ports including Maputo, Durban, Walvis Bay, and Mauritius.
In East Africa, Kenya is strengthening its position as a logistics hub through Lamu Port and Nairobi, while Ethiopia is playing a growing role in air transport links between Asia, Africa, and Europe.
The report also notes that a wider conflict could intensify geopolitical competition in Africa and increase the cost of humanitarian operations, particularly in Sudan and the Horn of Africa.
