ADDIS ABABA, April 15 – Nigeria’s economic growth is now projected at 4.1% in 2026, following a downward revision by the International Monetary Fund in its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, released during the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC.
The revised figure is 0.3 percentage points lower than the 4.4% forecast issued in January 2026, reflecting growing pressure from global disruptions and rising domestic costs.
Despite the downgrade, the projection remains slightly above earlier estimates published in late 2025.
According to the IMF, the adjustment reflects a mix of opposing forces shaping Nigeria’s outlook. Higher fuel and fertilizer prices, alongside rising shipping and logistics costs, are expected to weigh on non-oil sectors. At the same time, elevated oil prices are providing some support to overall economic activity.
The Fund noted that these pressures are linked to broader global developments, particularly disruptions tied to tensions in the Middle East, which have driven up energy prices and strained supply chains. These conditions have also increased the cost of imported inputs, affecting production across key sectors.
Nigeria’s inflation stood at 15.06% year-on-year as of February 2026, while the benchmark interest rate remained at 26.50%, reflecting continued monetary tightening aimed at stabilising prices.
The IMF said maintaining a tight, data-driven policy stance and closely monitoring exchange rate movements would be critical in the period ahead.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to ease slightly from 4.5% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026, before edging up to 4.4% in 2027. The region is also facing reduced foreign aid flows, with bilateral support estimated to have declined by between 16% and 28% in 2025.
Globally, output is projected to slow to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025, highlighting the broader impact of ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
