ADDIS ABABA, Aug 5 – Ethiopia lost an estimated $24.6 billion to trade mis-invoicing between 2013 and 2022, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB), which says the losses continue to weaken government revenue needed for long-term economic growth.
The findings, published in the bank’s East Africa Economic Outlook 2026, show that under- and over-invoicing of imports and exports has reduced tax income, distorted trade records and allowed money to move outside the formal financial system.
According to the AfDB, Ethiopia will need funding equal to between 11% and 15% of its gross domestic product (GDP) each year until 2030 to support infrastructure, industrial growth and wider economic reforms. The bank said stronger domestic revenue collection will be important to reduce the country’s financing gap without increasing public debt.
To address the problem, the AfDB called for stronger customs and tax systems, wider use of digital customs platforms, better trade data checks and tighter rules to close gaps that allow fraudulent invoicing.
The AfDB said reducing trade mis-invoicing and improving tax collection would give Ethiopia more room to fund infrastructure, industrial development and climate programmes adding that stronger customs systems and better revenue collection remain important for sustainable growth across Africa.
The report comes as Ethiopia continues major economic reforms, including the adoption of a market-based foreign exchange system in 2024. While the move is expected to improve export competitiveness over time, the depreciation of the Ethiopian birr raised the country’s external debt-to-GDP ratio from 23.8% in 2024 to 33.9% in 2025, as foreign currency debt became more expensive.
