LUANDA, Oct 31 – Angola expects its economy to expand by approximately 5.5% in 2027, broadly maintaining this year’s projected growth rate, provided international oil prices average $71 per barrel, according to the government’s draft budget presented on Friday.
The proposed budget, which is expected to be submitted to parliament and remains subject to revisions, projects stronger activity in the non-oil economy as declining crude production weighs on the country’s petroleum sector.
The non-oil sector is forecast to grow by 7.19% in 2027, while the oil sector is expected to contract by 3.82%.
Angola’s government projects average crude oil production of approximately 1.00 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, down from an estimated 1.05 million bpd in 2026. The country is Sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest crude oil producer.
The government’s latest projection is broadly consistent with its mid-year budget review, which forecast economic growth of 5.57% for 2026.
On public finances, the proposed 2027 budget projects a fiscal deficit equivalent to 3.8% of gross domestic product (GDP). Total government expenditure is estimated at 37.3 trillion kwanza, equivalent to approximately $40.9 billion.
Debt servicing is expected to account for 43% of budget expenditure, highlighting the significant share of public resources allocated to meeting the country’s debt obligations.
Inflation is projected to moderate slightly, with the government targeting an annual rate of 7.27% by the end of 2027. Inflation stood at 8.43% in September 2026.
The projections reflect Angola’s continued effort to sustain economic expansion while managing the fiscal and production challenges associated with its dependence on oil revenues. Although the non-oil economy is expected to remain the main source of growth, declining crude output and substantial debt-servicing requirements will remain important considerations for the country’s economic outlook.
