ABIDJAN, June 2 – Ivory Coast has begun slowing forward sales of cocoa for the 2026/27 season as authorities grow increasingly concerned about the potential impact of an emerging El Niño weather pattern on future harvests.
According to Reuters reports, the country has already secured export contracts covering approximately one million metric tons of cocoa for the upcoming main crop season, which begins in September 2026.
However, regulators are now adopting a more cautious approach to additional sales as uncertainty over production conditions increases.
The move comes from the Abidjan-based Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC), which oversees cocoa marketing in the world’s largest cocoa-producing nation.
Sources familiar with the matter said the regulator has also increased premiums on new export contracts, with buyers now expected to pay at least £100 per ton above benchmark futures prices.
The decision reflects stronger global demand for cocoa and growing expectations of tighter supplies in the upcoming season.
Market participants say the higher premium indicates that Ivory Coast is under less pressure to aggressively market future production amid sustained demand from chocolate manufacturers and commodity traders.
Weather concerns have emerged as a key factor influencing the country’s strategy.
Forecasters have warned that El Niño conditions could develop during the coming months, potentially bringing drier weather across major cocoa-producing countries in West and Central Africa, including Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria.
Industry officials have pointed to unusually high temperatures recorded during the first five months of the year as a source of concern.
While recent rainfall has improved conditions in some growing areas, agricultural experts caution that it may not fully offset earlier weather stress on cocoa trees.
If El Niño intensifies during the critical June and July growing period, production prospects for both the mid-crop and the next main harvest could face additional pressure.
Not all market participants agree on the severity of the threat.
Several exporters argue that weather conditions alone are unlikely to significantly reduce output, while others support the regulator’s cautious approach given the uncertainty surrounding seasonal forecasts.
Beyond weather risks, many industry participants believe structural challenges pose an even greater threat to future production.
Aging plantations, disease pressures and insufficient investment in farm maintenance continue to affect cocoa-growing regions across the country.
The situation has been compounded by rising fertilizer costs, which have increased sharply following disruptions to global supply chains and higher shipping costs linked to tensions in the Middle East.
Higher input prices could make it more difficult for farmers to maintain yields, particularly among smallholder producers who account for a significant share of Ivory Coast’s cocoa output.
The combination of weather uncertainty, rising production costs and strong global demand is contributing to expectations of a tighter cocoa market heading into the 2026/27 season.
As a result, Ivory Coast appears to be prioritizing supply management and price optimization while awaiting clearer indications about the size and quality of next season’s harvest.
