JOHANNESBERG, June 24 – South African company Sibanye Stillwater expects global mined platinum production to fall by about 15% over the next decade as miners remain cautious about expanding supply despite signs that demand could stay stronger for longer.
Speaking to analysts, the company’s Executive Vice President for Sales and Marketing, Kleantha Pillay, said annual platinum mine output is projected to decline from about 6.2 million ounces in 2019 to 4.7 million ounces by 2034.
South African producers, which account for roughly 70% of the world’s platinum supply, have been reluctant to invest in new production because of uncertainty over long term demand. As existing reserves are depleted, output is expected to keep falling.
With platinum mainly used in autocatalysts for internal combustion engine vehicles and the growing shift to electric vehicles has been seen as a major risk to demand, the company believes the transition is happening more slowly than previously expected.
The company now forecasts that electric vehicles will account for 35% of global car sales by 2034, below the International Energy Agency’s projection of a 50% market share by 2035.
Pillay said forecasts for battery electric vehicle adoption have been revised lower each year over the past four years. She also pointed to the European Union’s decision to ease emissions targets last December and a proposal by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to delay enforcement of vehicle pollution rules, saying both developments give combustion engine vehicles more time in the market.
Meanwhile, Johnson Matthey expects global platinum production to ease to 5.46 million ounces in 2026 from 5.56 million ounces last year.
Sibanye also expects palladium production to decline by about 15% to 5.6 million ounces by 2034, while recycled platinum group metals are forecast to remain steady at around 5 million ounces and are not expected to significantly change overall market supply.
