LAGOS, Sept 3 – Nigeria could double investment into its energy sector within five years as its new relationship with the International Energy Agency strengthens efforts to attract international capital, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said during a visit to Abuja.
Birol said Nigeria’s admission to the IEA’s Association programme could help the country attract more investment while improving technical cooperation and giving Africa’s largest oil producer a stronger role in international energy policy discussions.
“My goal is, in a very short period of time, in five years, at least doubling the energy investments Nigeria is receiving today,” Birol said.
Nigeria has significant opportunities across oil, natural gas and renewable energy, particularly solar power, but unlocking those opportunities will require substantial new capital. Birol said changing global energy trade patterns could also create opportunities for Nigeria as governments and private investors increasingly seek reliable partners and diversified sources of energy supply.
“The most scarce commodity is not oil, not gas, not uranium, not lithium. It is trust,” Birol said. “Countries are looking for partners they can rely on.”
The IEA chief described Nigeria as a credible energy supplier, pointing to the growing role of the Dangote refinery in international fuel markets. The refinery, which processes about 700,000 barrels of crude per day, has increased exports of refined products and helped ease fuel supply pressures in parts of Europe, according to Birol.
Nigeria’s energy expansion plans
Nigeria is targeting a substantial increase in crude oil production as it seeks to reverse years of underinvestment in the petroleum sector. The country aims to nearly double output to 3 million barrels per day by 2030, with energy-sector reforms, infrastructure improvements and stronger measures against oil theft expected to support the expansion.
Nigeria became an associate member of the IEA in July after the agency’s member countries unanimously approved its application. The organisation’s membership includes major energy economies such as the United States, Germany, Italy and Japan.
The new partnership is expected to result in a joint work programme covering areas including natural gas, electrification, clean cooking, energy efficiency and energy data.
Improving the quality and availability of energy data will be particularly important for investors and market participants. Nigeria has faced longstanding challenges with the collection and reporting of reliable information on areas including oil production, exports and domestic consumption.
The IEA’s involvement could therefore provide technical support while improving the information available to investors assessing Nigeria’s energy market.
Global energy security reshapes investment flows
Birol also linked Nigeria’s investment prospects to a broader restructuring of global energy markets following disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts.
The war in Ukraine and instability around major shipping routes have encouraged governments and energy companies to reassess supply chains and seek more diversified sources of energy, he said. Nigeria’s large hydrocarbon resources and growing refining capacity could position the country to benefit from these shifts if investment conditions continue to improve.
Birol warned, however, that prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could create additional pressure on global fuel markets, particularly for refined products.
“If the Strait of Hormuz is not going to open convincingly sometime soon, we may have some difficulties both in terms of crude oil, but especially on products such as diesel and jet fuel,” he said.
He added that the coming weeks and months would be important for maintaining a balance between global oil supply and demand.
For Nigeria, deeper cooperation with the IEA comes as the country seeks to attract capital across its entire energy value chain, from upstream oil and gas production to refining, electricity access and renewable energy. The success of that strategy will depend not only on the scale of Nigeria’s resources, but also on its ability to improve infrastructure, security, regulatory certainty and the reliability of market data.
