LAGOS, Nov 13 – Nigeria’s ambition to regain investment-grade credit status by 2029 may take longer to achieve, according to S&P Global Ratings, which says the country faces a significant ratings gap despite recent improvements in its economic and fiscal outlook.
Samira Mensah, Managing Director for Research and Analytics in Africa at S&P Global Ratings, expressed reservations about the government’s timeline in an interview in Lagos, responding to its target of moving Nigeria out of speculative-grade territory within three years.
“We have never seen actually a sovereign go from a single B to investment grade in three years, historically,” Mensah said, pointing to the agency’s track record of assessing sovereign credit ratings and their movements over time.
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele disclosed last month that Nigeria was targeting a return to investment-grade status by 2029. The objective is to attract more international capital, strengthen investor confidence and deepen the country’s financial markets.
Nigeria currently holds a B rating with a stable outlook from S&P, placing it five notches below investment grade. Fitch Ratings also places the country five levels below the threshold, while Moody’s Ratings assigns it a rating six levels below investment grade.
Despite questioning the proposed timeline, Mensah acknowledged the government’s efforts to improve Nigeria’s economic and fiscal position.
S&P upgraded Nigeria’s credit rating in May for the first time since 2012, citing ongoing economic reforms, higher oil prices and improved capacity to refine and export crude oil. The upgrade reflected improved economic prospects following policy changes introduced by President Bola Tinubu since taking office in May 2023.
The reforms include the removal of petrol subsidies, foreign exchange market liberalisation to allow the naira to trade more freely, and changes to the tax system intended to strengthen government revenue.
The measures are designed to reduce economic distortions, improve fiscal sustainability and strengthen the government’s capacity to meet its financial obligations.
S&P is scheduled to publish its next assessment of Nigeria’s sovereign creditworthiness on Friday.
Sustained reforms take priority over rating target
Mensah said Nigerian authorities deserved recognition for setting an ambitious credit rating objective but should focus on sustaining economic improvements rather than pursuing a particular rating within a fixed timeframe.
She argued that consistent progress in the right direction was more important than achieving a specific credit classification by 2029.
Investment-grade ratings generally indicate a lower perceived risk of default and can broaden access to international capital. They may also reduce borrowing costs for governments and businesses by making their debt instruments eligible for investment by a wider pool of institutional investors.
For Nigeria, an upgrade to investment grade would mark a substantial improvement in its credit standing following years of fiscal pressures, foreign exchange constraints and elevated debt risks.
Nigeria also targets MSCI Emerging Markets classification
The government’s capital market ambitions extend beyond sovereign credit ratings.
Speaking at the National Capital Market Conference 2026 in Abuja last month, Oyedele said Nigeria was targeting inclusion in MSCI’s Emerging Markets classification rather than merely seeking a return to Frontier Market status.
The government is engaging global index provider MSCI to improve Nigeria’s market classification as part of a broader effort to attract international investment.
Under the new capital market roadmap, Nigeria aims to expand its market capitalisation from approximately ₦250 trillion ($185.80 billion) to ₦750 trillion ($557.41 billion) by 2036.
Oyedele said returning to international investment benchmarks should be treated as a stepping stone rather than the ultimate objective. He noted that global index providers influence capital allocation decisions because institutional investors use their benchmarks to guide exposure across markets.
