RABAT, Sept 13 – Morocco’s economy is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2027, according to the macroeconomic framework accompanying the government’s 2027 Finance Bill, with continued expansion in non-agricultural activity and stronger investment expected to support growth.
The forecast, prepared by the Ministry of Economy and Finance, assumes a moderate recovery in agriculture alongside sustained momentum in industry and services.
Agricultural value added is projected to increase by 1.2% in 2027, based on an assumption of an agricultural campaign producing 70 million quintals. By contrast, non-agricultural activities are expected to remain a major source of growth, with their combined value added forecast to rise by 4.3%.
Industry remains key growth driver
The secondary sector is expected to strengthen its contribution to the economy in 2027. Its value added is projected to expand by 4.9%, up from an estimated 4.5% in 2026, making industry one of the principal drivers of non-agricultural growth.
The tertiary sector is also expected to maintain a strong pace of expansion. Its value added is forecast to grow by 4.1%, compared with 4% in 2026.
The projections indicate that Morocco’s underlying economic expansion will continue to rely heavily on sectors outside agriculture, reducing the economy’s dependence on agricultural performance for overall growth.
Investment supports domestic demand
On the expenditure side, household consumption is expected to remain an important contributor to economic activity. Household final consumption, including spending by non-profit institutions, is projected to increase by 4.3% in 2027, compared with 4.6% in 2026.
Public administration consumption is forecast to grow by 6.6%, moderating from 9.1% in 2026.
Investment is expected to provide an increasing source of support. Gross fixed capital formation is projected to rise by 4.6% in 2027, compared with 4% in 2026.
The Finance Ministry attributed the expected increase to the continuation of investment efforts and the strengthening of productive capacity across the national economy.
Trade growth expected to accelerate
Morocco’s external trade is also projected to remain active in 2027. Exports of goods and services, measured in volume terms, are expected to increase by 7.3%, accelerating from 6.4% in 2026.
Imports are projected to rise by 7%, compared with 5.5% in 2026. The stronger pace of imports is linked to continued domestic demand and investment, suggesting that rising economic activity will also translate into greater demand for foreign goods and production inputs.
At current prices, Morocco’s GDP is projected to increase by 6% in 2027, following an expected 6.8% expansion in 2026.
The government’s 4.1% real GDP growth forecast forms part of the macroeconomic framework underpinning the preparation of the 2027 Finance Bill and the government’s 2027-2029 three-year budget programme.
The outlook points to an economy increasingly supported by industrial production, services, domestic consumption and capital investment, while agricultural growth remains more moderate.
