JOHANNESBURG, 18 Mar — As petrol prices climb toward potentially catastrophic levels amid Middle East turmoil, a new generation of Chinese-made electric vehicles is quietly rewriting the economics of personal transport but the barriers to switching remain formidable
South African motorists are caught in a tightening vice. On one side a fuel price regime that is tracking upward with alarming momentum, driven by geopolitical shocks halfway across the world.
On the other, a rapidly expanding electric vehicle market that now offers entry-level options previously unimaginable in this country but one still encumbered by policy contradictions and infrastructure gaps that keep the transition out of reach for most households
Effective 4 March 2026, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) announced fuel price adjustments across all grade.
Petrol 93 (ULP and LRP) rose by 20 cents per litre, Petrol 95 by 20 cents, Diesel (0.05% sulphur) by 62 cents, and Diesel (0.005% sulphur) by 65 cents. Illuminating paraffin also climbed, with wholesale prices rising by 44 cents per litre
Those figures, however, may already be outdated history. The DMPR attributed the increases to a rise in the average Brent Crude oil price from USD 64.08 to USD 69.08 during the review period, with higher shipping rates and geopolitical uncertainty driven by tensions between the United States and Iran cited as the main contributing factors
Since then, the situation has deteriorated sharply. South Africa’s current fuel prices, effective from March 4, are based on oil averaging $64 per barrel during the last review period. Since the beginning of March, Brent Crude has averaged $88, and that number looks set to rise even further.
The most recent update from the Central Energy Fund is pointing to potential increases of R3.97 for 95 Unleaded petrol and R3.61 for 93 Unleaded, while diesel looks set to rise by between R6.63 and R6.74 per litre
In a worst-case scenario, the outlook is described as little short of catastrophic. Should oil remain above $100 and the rand remain at its current weakened level through the end of March, South Africans could face a petrol increase of more than R5.20 and a diesel hike exceeding R8.80, according to calculations by industry analysts
Against this backdrop, the electric vehicle market in South Africa is undergoing its most consequential transformation since the first battery-powered cars arrived in the country. 2026 marks the first real era of price compression at the entry level.
The most significant market shift has been the battle for the “most affordable” title. While the Dayun S5 held the crown for much of last year at R399,900, it has been officially dethroned by the BYD Dolphin Surf
which launched at R339,900
South Africa’s charging infrastructure has expanded to approximately 600 public charging stations, concentrated primarily in Gauteng, the Western Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal. GridCars leads the network across most provinces, while CHARGE previously Zero Carbon Charge is developing 120 solar-powered ultra-fast charging hubs along national and provincial highways, spaced roughly 150 km apart and designed to bypass reliance on the national grid
Petrol and diesel vehicles imported from the EU into South Africa face a customs duty of 18%, while for electric vehicles it is 25%, this higher tariff directly inflates the sticker price of every EV sold to South African consumers, widening the gap that the lower running costs must overcome
From March 2026, the government has introduced a production-side incentive: a tax allowance enabling manufacturers to deduct 150% of the cost of buildings and equipment used primarily for producing electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles.
However, critics argue this measure is structurally misaligned. As Joubert Roux, Co-Founder and Chair of CHARGE, put it “You cannot incentivise EV production on one hand and penalise EV adoption on the other. Without urgent tax reform and infrastructure funding, South Africa risks constraining domestic EV demand at precisely the moment it is trying to attract EV investment.”
The interplay of a 150% tax incentive for EV production alongside a 25% import duty creates what market participants have characterised as contradictory signals for the sector
