ABUJA, July 9 – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says rising prices of essential goods could slow Nigeria’s progress in reducing poverty and worsen food insecurity, even as the country’s economic outlook continues to improve.
In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, the Fund kept Nigeria’s growth forecast at 4.1% for 2026 and projected a further rise to 4.3% in 2027, adding that improved macroeconomic stability and stronger terms of trade have supported the economy, but many households are still struggling with the rising cost of living.
According to the IMF, higher prices for basic necessities could reduce some of the gains from the country’s ongoing economic reforms, leaving more families vulnerable.
The Fund also projected that economic growth across sub-Saharan Africa would remain steady at 4.3% in 2026, although outcomes will differ from one country to another depending on policy decisions, reform progress and exposure to external shocks.
Globally, the IMF expects growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. However, it warned that inflation remains a concern, with global headline inflation projected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 3.9% in 2027.
The report also forecast a 32% increase in crude oil prices, a 22% rise in natural gas prices and a 26% increase in fertiliser prices in 2026. Food prices are expected to climb by about 8% as higher energy, transport and fertiliser costs feed into production.
To cushion the impact, the IMF advised governments against broad fuel subsidies, tax cuts and price controls recommending temporary, targeted support for vulnerable households, alongside stronger tax administration, improved public spending and expanded social protection programmes while maintaining price stability.
