JOHANNESBURG, Feb 2 – JPMorgan expects gold prices to climb to $6,300 an ounce by the end of the year, citing sustained demand from central banks and investors despite recent market volatility.
In a note released late Sunday, the U.S. investment bank said it remains firmly bullish on gold over the medium term, arguing that the metal continues to benefit from a structural shift away from paper assets toward real assets. The bank described the trend as “clean” and “unexhausted,” underpinned by ongoing reserve diversification and investor hedging demand.
Gold prices pulled back sharply at the start of the week, extending losses on Monday to trade at $4,677.17 an ounce by 0450 GMT, after dropping more than 5% earlier in the session to their lowest level in more than two weeks. The retreat followed a powerful rally that saw bullion reach a record high of $5,594.82 on Thursday.
Despite the correction, JPMorgan said it expects central bank purchases to remain a key pillar of support. The bank now forecasts official-sector gold buying of around 800 metric tons in 2026, reflecting what it sees as a continued and deliberate move by monetary authorities to diversify reserves away from traditional currencies.
“We remain firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium term on the back of a continued diversification trend that has further to run,” the bank said, adding that real assets are still outperforming financial assets in the current macroeconomic environment.
JPMorgan struck a more cautious tone on silver, where prices have surged sharply since late December. Spot silver fell more than 6% on Monday to $78.90 an ounce, after hitting a record high of $121.64 last Thursday before sliding to a near one-month low on Friday.
While the bank acknowledged that silver is unlikely to fully surrender its recent gains, it noted that the drivers of the rally are less clear-cut than those supporting gold. Unlike gold, silver does not benefit from consistent central bank buying, leaving it more vulnerable to swings in investor sentiment and a potential widening of the gold-to-silver ratio in the weeks ahead.
Even so, JPMorgan said it now sees a higher price floor for silver than previously expected, estimating average levels around $75 to $80 an ounce for the time being.
