JOHANNESBURG, Jan 28 – Africa’s first round of interest rate decisions for the year is set to begin, with only a handful of economies expected to deliver modest cuts while most central banks remain on hold as easing cycles approach their limits.
Key economies including Egypt, Nigeria, and Kenya are among those seen lowering rates at their initial policy meetings of the year, reflecting a steady slowdown in inflation across parts of the continent. However, policymakers are widely expected to move cautiously, mindful of currency stability, capital flows, and lingering external risks.
At least 11 African central banks are scheduled to announce policy decisions over the course of the month. These include South Africa and Mozambique, where the outlook is less predictable and internal debates are likely to dominate deliberations.
Across the continent, inflation has eased from recent peaks, supported by improved supply conditions, softer global commodity prices in some categories, and tighter monetary policy over the past two years. That has created limited room for rate cuts, particularly in economies where price pressures have fallen back within or close to target ranges.
Still, central banks remain constrained by global financial conditions. With major developed market rates expected to stay higher for longer, African policymakers are wary of moving too aggressively and risking renewed pressure on currencies or portfolio outflows.
In several countries, easing cycles are increasingly viewed as nearing their end rather than the start of a sustained loosening phase. As a result, many central banks are expected to pause, assess the durability of disinflation trends, and wait for clearer signals from global markets before adjusting policy further.
The coming weeks will offer a critical read on how African monetary authorities balance growth support with financial stability, as the region navigates a fragile global recovery and shifting investor sentiment.
