Abuja, Jan 5 – Nigeria’s current account surplus is projected to widen to $18.81 billion in 2026, equivalent to 11.16 percent of gross domestic product, as stronger export earnings and remittance inflows support the country’s external balances, the Central Bank of Nigeria said.
The forecast, published in the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, compares with an estimated surplus of $16.94 billion, or 10.94 percent of GDP, in 2025. The outlook signals cautious optimism even as pressures from rising imports, services payments, and investment income outflows persist.
According to the central bank, Nigeria’s goods account is expected to improve on the back of stronger export receipts, with total exports projected to rise to $58.26 billion in 2026 from $54.59 billion in 2025. Growth is expected to be driven by both oil and non-oil exports.
Oil export earnings are forecast to increase as domestic crude production rises, supported by improved security around oil installations and increased investment in the sector, the bank said.
Non-oil exports are also expected to expand, led by agricultural commodities and fertilisers. The CBN said government initiatives aimed at strengthening the export value chain will continue to support receipts. These include the recently launched National Export Trading Company, designed to address structural gaps in exports, and the National Intellectual Property Policy, which seeks to boost creative industry exports.
Despite the stronger export outlook, imports are projected to increase to $43.27 billion in 2026 from $39.92 billion in 2025, reflecting higher demand for capital goods as economic activity accelerates.
The services account deficit is expected to widen to $13.68 billion in 2026, up from $12.80 billion in 2025, driven by higher payments for business and transport services. The central bank cited increased demand for research and development services and rising freight charges linked to higher non-oil imports.
Nigeria’s primary income account is forecast to remain in deficit at $8.62 billion, reflecting higher interest and dividend payments to non-resident investors. The CBN noted that relatively attractive domestic yields are likely to continue drawing foreign portfolio inflows, which in turn raise investment income outflows.
The secondary income account is projected to strengthen further, with a surplus of $26.13 billion in 2026 compared with $23.82 billion in 2025. This increase is expected to be driven by stronger diaspora remittances and higher transfers, some of which may support election-related activities during the period.
