RABAT, Mar 18 – Morocco’s central bank has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% following its first policy meeting of 2026, citing a stable inflation outlook and steady economic momentum despite rising global uncertainty.
The decision by Bank Al-Maghrib reflects a cautious stance as policymakers weigh subdued price pressures against external risks, particularly geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could affect energy costs.
Inflation is projected to remain low in the near term, with forecasts pointing to 0.8% in 2026 before edging up to 1.4% in 2027. The relatively moderate outlook has given the central bank room to maintain its current rate, while allowing earlier policy adjustments to continue filtering through the economy.
Economic growth, however, is expected to strengthen. The central bank raised its 2026 growth forecast to 5.6%, up from 4.8% recorded last year, supported largely by improved agricultural output following favourable rainfall. Cereal production is projected to reach about 8.2 million metric tons, highlighting the sector’s continued influence on overall performance.
Beyond agriculture, non-agricultural sectors are also showing resilience, contributing to broader economic expansion.
At the same time, external pressures are expected to build. The current account deficit is projected to widen to 3.1% of GDP in 2026, compared with 2.3% previously, largely due to higher energy import costs. Oil price movements remain a key variable, with potential increases expected to weigh on the country’s import bill.
Foreign exchange reserves are forecast to reach 482 billion dirhams, equivalent to about $51.5 billion, by 2027, covering around 5.5 months of imports.
The central bank said future policy decisions will depend on incoming economic data, maintaining a flexible, meeting-by-meeting approach.
